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Archive for the ‘Projections’ Category

We can forecast on how we think a player will perform in each category. Some of these statistical categories reward playing time (i.e. HR,RBI,K,W) , where others are based on the success rate  (AVG,ERA)

Everyone has their secret formula about how they make these projection, but the bottom line is we will be happy just knowing the numbers are close. We do not need to know how close the number are , we just care that we are within the range of the actual numbers .

ESPN

 

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Each year, USA Today comes out with their 100 names you need to know for the upcoming season. This is a good resource of getting to know some of the minor league players that are usually at that point of their career where they are ready make a big impact at the major league level.

Here are a few of the players making the 2011 top ten of the “100 Names You Need to Know:

#1 Aroldis Chapman

Bullpen is the answer to the first big question about the Cuban flamethrower for this season. That’s where he’ll pitch, though the Reds aren’t ruling out a future role in their rotation. The next question revolves around when and if he could take over for closer Francisco Cordero, who is entering the final guaranteed year of his contract ($12 million option for 2012) and allowed baserunners last season at the highest rate of his career.

#2 Craig Kimbrel

Kimbrel, 22, got a taste of key late-inning situations late last season and in the playoffs. His 14.4 strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate through three minor league seasons was impressive enough, but he boosted that to 16.9 in his 25 combined regular season and playoff innings in the majors last year.

#3 Freddy Freeman

Freeman will show up this spring with the first base job and expectations he can be as impactful as Heyward. A lefty like his close friend Heyward, Freeman’s best attribute might be his defense, though he finished in the Class AAA International League’s top 10 in batting before turning 21 in September. His 18 homers last year dispelled concerns the 6-5, 225-pounder might not develop big-time power.

#6 Logan Morrison

Florida has plenty to chirp about with its trio of young studs on offense. Twitter-happy Morrison – and not Mike Stanton or Gaby Sanchez – remains eligible for our list thanks to his late-July 2010 call-up. Morrison moved to the outfield last year after older Sanchez beat him out for the Marlins’ first base job.

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The final rosters do not have to be finalized until Sunday afternoon, but looking at what we know today, here’s how I see it in the NL East:

Pos Mets Marlins Braves Nats Phils
C Barajas Baker McCann Rodriguez Ruiz
1B Jacobs Sanchez Glaus Dunn Howard
2B Castillo Uggla Prado Kennedy Utley
SS Cora Ramirez Escobar Desmond Rollins
3B Wright Cantu Jones Zimmerman Polanco
LF Bay Coughlin Cabrera Willingham Ibanez
CF Pagan Maybin McLouth Morgan Victorino
RF Francoeur Ross Heyward Harris Werth
OF Catalanotto Carroll Diaz Bernadina Fransisco
OF Matthews Jr.
Bonofacio Hinske Morse Gload
IF Carter Helms Infante Gonzalez Dobbs
IF Tatis Lamb Thurston Guzman Castro
C Blanco Paulino Ross Nieves Schneider
SP Santana Johnson Hudson Lannan Halladay
SP Pelfrey Nolasco Lowe Marquis Hamels
SP Maine Sanchez Jurrjens Stammen Happ
SP Perez Volstad Hanson
Hernandez Kendrick
SP Niese Robertson Kawakami Mock Moyer
RP Rodriguez Nunez Wagner Capps Madson
RP Igarashi Sanchez Moylan Olsen Baez
RP Feliciano Meyer Saito Bruney Zagurski
RP Mejia Veres Medlin Clippard Durbin
RP Calero Hensley Reyes Burnett Bastardo
RP Figueroa Pinto Chavez
Bergmann Lopez
25th Adams Barden Conrad Batista Ransom
  • Mets: Beltran, Reyes, Takahashi, Nieve, Tejada, Santos, Escobar, Murphy, Parnell, Green, Dessens, Muniz
  • Braves: Freeman, Hicks, Sammons, Boscan, Schafer, Young, Proctor, Venters, O’Flaherty
  • Marlins: Badenhop, Richar, Davis, Luna, Murphy
  • Nats: English, Martis, James, Walker, Spier, Orr, Coste, Taveras, Maxwell, McDougal, Wang, Detwiller, Duncan, Bruntlett, Flores
  • Phillies: Blanton, Lidge, Romero, Valdez, Guzman, Hoover, Brown, Wise

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Those of you who have been following my site for a while know I am big time into fantasy baseball. In past years,  my favorite resource for getting ready for the draft and the baseball season is USA Today’s must see LABR draft issue. The LABR issue comes out in late March. Until then, there is a wide variety of publications to choose from at reasonable costs.

Leading off is another edition of the DRAYS BAY Annual. This is by far the best one yet, with a bunch of talented writers contributing. I never imagined that the DRB franchise would evolve into such am intelligent community.

Next on the new ticket, is an introductory sabermetrics book just published last week by Lee Panas that is titled Beyond Batting Average. This book introduces fans to sabermetrics with easy to understand explanations and examples. My site was even referenced in the book:

Both the BA/OBP/SLG and BA/EOBP/ISO combinations are limited, due to the fact that they fail to take playing time into account.  For example, a hitter with a .300 BA/.360 OBP/.500 SLG in 600 PA would contribute more to his team than a hitter with the same line in 300 PA.  David Bloom, of BaseballHappenings.com, suggests using OBP/SLG/TOB/TB because it combines both rate measures (OBP, SLG) and playing time statistics (TOB, TB).  However, BA/OBP/SLG is still the most common combination in the sabermetric community.

Next,on tap  for fantasy baseball is the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.  This is a supplement for just $5 to the Rotoprofessor site which is a great resource for your fantasy help throughout the year. See the Rotoprofessor Interview

Another nicely priced resource is Charlie Saponara Fantasy Baseball 365 Draft guide which can be obtained via a donation.  If you don’t check out the guide, fantasybaseball365.com is where you can find good tips throughout the year. I played in a few expert leagues with Charlie over the years. He knows his stuff.

Other Good Resources:

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Each year, USA Today comes out with their 100 names you need to know for the upcoming season.  The list is different from typical prospect lists. Its typically a good resource for fantasy leagues, as these are players who have a good chance to make contributions for the upcoming season:

These aren’t necessarily baseball’s 100 best prospects because many top prospects are too far down in the minor leagues to contribute in the majors this season. Others are stuck behind established major leaguers.

Not all of the players on our list have rookie status, either, but our standard for inclusion is that a player must have had more innings (for pitchers) or at-bats (for hitters) in the minor leagues in 2009 than he has had during all of his major league time.

Conversely, Baseball  America released their top 100 prospect list for 2010 .

The Top 100 Prospects list is the culmination of our offseason prospect coverage, which begins with our reviews of the top talent in each minor league and proceeds with ranking the talent in each major league farm system.

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We have heard rumors of Twins catcher Joe Mauer , the 2009 AL MVP,  going to the dance together with the Twins for the next 10 years.   Mauer’s 2009 season is one for the record books, leading the American league in Batting Average , On Base Percentage, Slugging,  OPS, and runs created.

Did the Mets rush oufielder Fernando Martinez to majors last season? His minor league career has shown flashes of great potential, but the ability to stay healthy has been his biggest drawback.

The Marcel projection system is either the most basic forecasting system, or the most advanced forecasting system. The Marcel 2010 projections can be found here.

With the acquisition of Roy Halladay, the trade of Cliff Lee, the free agent signing of Placido Polanco, you would wonder how the Phillies might stack up. Based On Shawn Smith’s Chone projection system, Phillies season is best summed up with two words, second place.

Miguel Cairo was one of the first ever Devil Ray players. We never knew he would  have such a useful  career as a super substitute utility player. There is even a projection system named after him. Here is where you can find the 2010 Cairo projections.

Lastly, pitchers and catchers in seven days.

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The Reds Chris Dickerson (like it says here) has a track record of the high strikeout numbers.  I decided to take a look back at his minor league performance, and he is pretty consistent with double digit home runs and the 20 or so stolen bases.

HR     RBI  SB    BB    SO   AVG  OBP  SLG  AB    Team-Yr League
6     15    5     17    35  .304 .413 .608 102    CIN-08  (NL)
11     53   26    54    102 .287 .384 .479 349    LOU-08  (AAA)
13     44   23    52    131 .260 .361 .435 354    LOU-07  (AAA)
12     48   21    65    129 .242 .355 .424 389    CHAT-06 (AA)

Dickerson did have an off the charts display in his callup to the major leagues last season.  Dickerson was in the company with some of the best in the game (.608 TB/AB), but this was only a small sample of plate appearances.

So, what can we expect out of the young outfielder who is trying to earn a starting  job with the team. My thought is last season was more than a little above the level we will see out of Dickerson.

I am predicting 14 HRS , .245 BA, 67RBI , and 20 SB.

Lets see what some of the prediction systems say:

Bill James is super high on him. .268BA, 21HR, 37SB, 93RBI

The Chone predictions does not seem that high on him though.

From the scouting perspective, John Sickels thinks the speedster strikes out too much but makes a valuable fouth outfielder. I do think the best compareable I know of is Corey Patterson.

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